Haver’s data services are provided through the DLX platform; delivering tools for data management, visualization, modeling and publishing. DLX is designed to increase productivity and integrates with Excel, PowerPoint, and major statistical software packages; MatLab, R, Python, SAS, E-views and Stata. DLX component application DLXVG3 offers precision graphics, publishing, analytic tools, and easy navigation for all Haver databases.

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Chart and compare multiple data series with accompanying data table of values

Advanced functions (growth rates, moving averages, aggregation, seasonal adjustment)

Analytical tools (cycle charts, scatterplots, trend lines, and recession shading)

Complete graph customization (axis scaling, sizing, formatting, styles)

Excel and PowerPoint direct export and complete integration (dynamic spreadsheets and presentations update on a click)

DLXVG3

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DLX Add-ins for all versions of Excel provide instant data updates of entire workbooks

Use DLXVG3 to locate data series codes from within any file, easily creating new spreadsheets for analysis

Edit date ranges, archive data, apply functions

Excel Spreadsheet Add-ins

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Haver offers timely, accurate, and professionally supported data via an update service, meeting the strictest demands of the institutional research community

AutoUpdate provides fast and reliable data updates within seconds of source releases

Timer service runs continuously on an hourly basis when DLX is running

Manual updates offer clients the independence to update data retrievals on any desired schedule

All database updates retrieve only the data series that have changed and send only the data points that have been updated; including revisions

Timely Updates

DLX software tools to convert data into many different formats needed for diverse analytical frameworks

Haver supports a DLX API permitting clients to leverage and build processes with DLX data

Database Compatibility

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Data Link Express

Platform Independent site delivering DLX Databases across any workstation or device.

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HaverView

[Matlab](http://matlab.com) by The MathWorks lets you access, visualize, and analyze historic time-series data to identify patterns or uncover complex relationships. From within a single environment you can:

- Access data from multiple sources including files, spreadsheets, databases, data providers, and the Web
- Store data in financial time-series objects to simplify data management, data transformation, missing-data handling, and date-math calculations
- Perform technical analysis with moving averages, oscillators, stochastics, and indices
- Create custom analysis routines and visualizations or animations to capture, present, and share your analysis processes and discoveries
- Customize your analysis environment with advanced functionality from signal processing, statistics, or econometrics

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MATLAB

[Stata Data Analysis and Statistical Software](https://www.stata.com) by StataCorp LP is an integrated statistical package designed for researchers of all disciplines. It provides the ability to do data analysis, data management and graphics and has features such as multiple imputation, factor variables, GMM, competing-risks regression, state-space modeling, predictive margins, and more.

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Stata

[SAS](https://www.sas.com) provides an integrated environment for predictive and descriptive modeling, data mining, text analytics, forecasting, optimization, simulation, experimental design and more. From predictive analytics to model deployment and process optimization, SAS provides a range of techniques and processes for the collection, classification, analysis and interpretation of data to reveal patterns, anomalies, key variables and relationships, leading ultimately to new insights and better answers faster.

[SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) is a seamless interface between Haver and SAS data processing that enables SAS users to read economic and financial time series data that reside in a Haver Analytics DLX (Data Link Express) database. [SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) requires both SAS/ETS and Base SAS Software.

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[RATS (Regression Analysis of Time Series) Econometric Software](https://estima.com) by Estima is a leading econometrics and time-series analysis software package. It provides ability to do linear and non-linear least squares, forecasting, SUR and ARIMA models and in addition, supports advanced techniques such as GMM, ARCH and GARCH models, state space models, and more.

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RATS

Session 1: Bootcamp Part 1

Visualization with GGPlot2 and data analysis

Session 2: Bootcamp Part 2

Session 3: Univariate Models Part 1

Session 4: Univariate Models Part 2

Session 5: Vector Autoregressions

Session 6: Cointegration and error-correction models

A popular open source option for statistical computing and graphics that is available on many UNIX platforms, Windows and MacOS

Estimating, evaluating, and forecasting ARIMA models

Understanding the concept of non-stationarity and testing for unit roots

Estimating autoregressions, granger causality tests, and impulse response functions

Understanding the concept of cointegration and testing using the Enger-Granger test

Estimating and forecasting with vector error correction models

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Teaches econometrics and forecasting at the University of Colorado Denver. He has over 15 years of econometric experience in both the private and public sector.

Daniel L. Jerrett, Ph.D.

Abdel M. Zellou, Ph.D.

Bootcamp and Econometric Tools 1 & 2

Econometrics Training: Applied Time Series in R

Session 5: Multivariate Models Part 1

Session 6: Multivariate Models Part 2

Haver partners with SmartMacro Labs to offer a two week immersive online course introducing participants to the power of the Python programming language. This applied hands-on training develops statistical economics skills with a concentration on economics and finance.

Gain proficiency in building modern time-series models in Python through real-world applications. Designed for professionals in both the public and private sector, the course does not require prior experience, assuming only that participants have a basic understanding of regression and statistical concepts.

Proficiency working in Jupyter notebooks and the Python environment

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Remote Training: Applied Time Series in Python

US productivity growth has been significantly faster than in other major economies

Robert Brusca

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German orders fell by 0.8% in August, dropping for four months in a row. Foreign orders have been and continue to be chronically weak. Domestic orders that made a strong rebound in the month have been erratic in recent months although they seem to be on a recovery path.

Total German factory orders are sequentially weakening on growth of 1.6% over 12 months, 0.5% annualized over six months and logging an annual rate of decline of 14.2% over three months. This path is largely driven by foreign orders that are weakening progressively and sharply. Foreign orders rise by just 0.4% over 12 months, then fall at a 1.6% annualized pace over six months and collapse at an annualized rate of -31.2% over three months. In contrast, domestic orders engage a moderate accelerating path that is topped off by extremely strong growth. Domestic orders rise by 3.4% over 12 months and at a slightly stronger 3.7% pace over six months and accelerate to 20.8% annualized over three months.

Quarter-to-date overall and foreign orders are declining with domestic orders following suit. Foreign orders show substantial contraction in the quarter while domestic orders contract at a much less violent pace.

**Rankings as an order-vetting process**
If we further vet orders by their levels, a weak judgement-standard over such a span even for ‘real’ orders, rankings on levels since 1990 show foreign orders at the 70% mark and domestic orders at a quite weak 35-percentile. However, rankings based on year-over-year growth rates drop the foreign order ranking to 38.5%, below their median and raise domestic orders to their 61.9 percentile. Total orders ranked by growth have a 49.2 percentile standing, nearly a median ranking; while total orders ranked on levels have a 58.4 percentile standing.

**Real sales**
Real sales for manufactured goods, viewed sequentially, show mixed trends with manufacturing overall having no clear tendency other than that of slight contraction. Consumer durable goods orders show accelerating contraction. Other categories are without clear trend. Quarter-to-date most categories show contraction in the quarter. Levels of real sales rankings show an above-median 50.7% for all of manufacturing boosted by capital goods with a 69.7 percentile standing and supported by intermediate goods with a slight under median 47.1 percentile standing. Consumer goods sales standings are extremely weak. But sales based on growth rates (12-months) show rankings below 50% for all sales categories – most are at the one-third mark.

**EMU industrial confidence in large countries**
Industrial confidence metrics for the four largest EMU member economies show broad weakening in August except for France; but all of the countries had improved industrial confidence in July. Sequentially the patterns are mixed for these four countries. Compared to year ago, values for two of them improved (France and Spain) while two other deteriorated (Germany and Italy). The queue standing on levels which are a fairer comparison on diffusion data (like this) show all readings below their 50-percentile mark (the median), with Germany at an anemic 12.9 percentile rank, the weakest of all and Spain at a 46.8 percentile ranking, the strongest.

On balance, this is a disappointing report for Germany. Its domestic economy seems to be on the right track, but its key customer base in foreign markets appears to be struggling more. It’s a mixed view, at best.

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Germany

German Orders Decline on Foreign Weakness

Tom Moeller

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The **Industrial Materials Price Index** from the Foundation for International Business and Economic Research (FIBER) rose 0.6% during the last four weeks, after easing 0.1% in the prior four week period. Prices declined 2.1% during the last twelve months. Lending support to prices, factory sector production increased 0.3% in August and improved 1.0% y/y.

**Metals** group prices led the latest price increase and strengthened 2.2% (-1.2% y/y) over four weeks. Zinc prices increased 5.1% (-2.9% y/y) in four weeks, while copper scrap prices strengthened 4.7% (4.8% y/y). Aluminum prices increased 2.3% (1.8% y/y). Tin prices rose 1.1% (5.7% y/y) in four weeks while lead prices improved 0.5% (-5.6% y/y). Working lower, steel scrap costs eased 0.5% (-10.3% y/y) over the last four weeks.

Prices in the **Textile** group moved 0.2% higher (0.7% y/y) during the last four weeks. Burlap costs, used for home gardening, strengthened 2.0% (19.9% y/y), but cotton prices eased 0.1% (-7.4% y/y).

**Miscellaneous** group prices edged up 0.1% in the latest four week period, but were down 1.7% y/y. Framing lumber prices strengthened 12.9% (14.5% y/y) during the last four weeks, but tallow costs (used in the soap industry) declined 10.6% (+15.3% y/y). Also falling, the cost of natural rubber fell 3.5% in four weeks, and plummeted 29.3% y/y.

**Crude Oil & Benzene** group costs weakened 1.0% (-9.1% y/y) in the latest four week period. The price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil declined 2.3% to $62.76 per barrel, 10.3% lower y/y. It stood just above the above the $62.55 low four weeks ago, and higher than $58.50 per barrel in the second week of May. The cost of the petrol-chemical benzene, used for making plastics & synthetic fibers, eased 0.6% in four weeks (-24.4% y/y). Excluding crude oil, the industrial commodity price index rose 0.7% over four weeks, but declined 1.6% y/y.

The Foundation for International Business and Economic Research (FIBER) develops economic measurement techniques as applied to business cycles and inflation in the U.S. and other market economies. The commodity price data can be found in Haver's **DAILY**, **WEEKLY**, **USECON** and **CMDTY** databases.

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- Modest Increase adds to recovery since early-September.
- Metals and lumber prices lead rise.
- Crude oil prices decline.

FIBER: Industrial Commodity Prices Increase in Latest Four Weeks

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Motor vehicle registrations fell sharply in August, dropping 10.8% after rising 11.5% in July, which had followed a 4.6% drop in June. This sort of ragged action in monthly activity is not really very unusual. It's characteristic of the auto market; however, if we look at the sequential data in the table, we see motor vehicle registrations up 3.6% over 12 months, falling at a 12% annual rate over six months, and then falling at 19.1% annual rate over three months, clearly an escalating pattern of weakness that is hidden by the monthly volatility.

Aggregate sales for the monetary union are not available yet; however, we have sales for eight key European countries. Not all of them members of the monetary union. Still, they tell a story.

We see in August sales dropped month-to-month in Germany and Italy and the Netherlands; sales rose in the other five reporting countries. There was repeat fall for Germany since sales also fell in July month-to-month; sales had fallen in two countries in July, the drop in Spain was reversed by an August gain. Italy, that has seen a drop in August, had flat sales in July. But only two countries had clear net declines in sales for July and August combined. In June, sales dropped in Denmark and the Netherland, while they turned up flat in Norway; sales grew in the other reporting countries.

We can recalibrate by looking at the sequential growth rates from 12-months, six-months, and three-months. On that basis, we see that there is weakness in play for Germany, Denmark, and the Netherlands over this span. Only Italy shows sales volumes are steadily expanding at an increasingly more rapid rate. Technically Spain is not on the list of countries showing acceleration, but Spain is showing growth of 4.5% or 4.6% in each one of these periods, a very steady and solid result. Sweden also fails the ‘every period improvement test’; however, its 3.9% growth over 12 months with growth down only to 3.6% over six months that explodes to an 18.1% annual rate over three months is clearly a candidate for a country that is percolating and doing better.

Quarter-to-date we've seen that motor vehicle registrations are falling at a 1.4% annual rate. But retail sales QTD are as strong as 7.5% in an annual rate in the Netherlands and 6% in Sweden. With the weakest result, apart from Germany's decline, there’s a gain of 1.7% at an annual rate in Italy. These data, through August, are for two months into the new quarter.

We also made the comparison of sales gains since COVID struck. On that basis, we see that motor vehicle registrations have fallen from their level in January 2020 by 20.2%. U.K. sales are contracting, falling by 2.6% in this lengthy period. Over this period, the U.K. conducted its operation Brexit in which it exited its membership from the European Union. As you can see, they paid a price for the exit- the weakest sales in this group and the only net decline. In Italy, sales are up very strongly at 11.1%, in Spain at 8.5%. After that, sales rates are clustered around net growth rates of 4 or 5% or slightly weaker; since we're looking at a 5 ½ year period, these sales translate into real consumer spending of less than 1% per year.

The graphic on retail sales shows that there's not a great deal of momentum for sales. We can see from the growth statistics of the individual countries in the table where three of the countries in the sample showing ongoing sales decelerations against only one with a clear acceleration.

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Manufacturing has been flirting with its own expansion-contraction line showing weak numbers in the PMI surveys that have hovered above and below the key level of ‘50’ which is the expansion/contraction dividing line. And then post-Covid growth has been nursed back to health without insisting that interest rates move up to drive inflation back down to target.

However, Europe is also on the doorstep of a war involving the Ukraine-Russia was in full swing with new flirtation or incursions over NATO members by Russia…will that mushroom? As it stands, there is no clear path to resolution.

Policies globally are still being watched; see what the next move is for central banks now that an easing cycle gas has been engaged at the Fed in the U.S. However, using its own basic metrics <Taylor Rule; R-Star>, the Fed doesn't seem to have a lot of room to continue to cut interest rates even though the President endorses more cuts and lower rates. However, this policy path seems to be getting ingrained in markets prematurely.

The recent retail sales in the U.K. on paper show few concerns. But at the Bank of England, there is talk that a more aggressively stimulative monetary policy is going to be needed to deal with emerging weakness that has been showing its hand.

Contrarily, events in the U.S. are made more complicated to disentangle since a failure to lift the agreement to set spending standards for the federal government has stuck federal spending in nominal terms. We can now see what the future holds and we'll see how the economies deal with that and what it is clearly a lot more uncertainty.

Europe

EMU Retail Sales Show Unevenness

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Business in the service sector weakened last month. The Services PMI fell to 50.0 during September after rising to 52.0 in August, following a decline to 50.1 in July, according to the Institute for Supply Management. The index has trended lower since February. The index hit a recent high of 55.8 in October of last year and remains below the all-time high of 67.5 in November 2021. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a reading of 51.9 in September.

The ISM Composite Index, developed by Haver Analytics, combines the services index and the ISM manufacturing index released on Wednesday. This index fell to 49.9 in September after rising to 51.6 in August, extending a decline since a high of 54.7 in October of last year.

The components of the services index were mixed last month. The business activity index declined to 49.9 last month after rising to 55.0 in August, below its high of 70.9 in both October & November of 2021. Twenty-one percent (NSA) of respondents reported improved activity while 15.1% reported decline. The new orders index weakened to 50.4 after increasing to 56.0 in August. Twenty-one percent (NSA) of respondents reported improved orders while a steady 16.2% reported decline. Working higher, the employment series rose to 47.2, its highest level in three months, after minimal m/m change at 46.5 in August. A higher 12.1% (NSA) of respondents reported increased employment while a lessened 16.1% reported decline. The supplier delivery series rose to 52.6 in September after falling to 50.3 in August. A slightly higher 4.6% of respondents (NSA) reported faster delivery speeds while a much higher 9.7% reported slower speeds.

On the inflation front, the prices index edged higher to 69.4 in September after easing to 69.2 from 69.9 in July. The index has increased from its March 2024 low of 53.5. An increased 39.9% (NSA) of respondents reported higher prices while an improved 3.2% reported lower prices.

Additionally, the new export orders index fell to 46.5 (NSA) in September following a decline to 47.3 in August. A fairly steady 11.4% of survey respondents reported higher exports while a higher 18.4% reported decline. The imports index fell to 49.2 last month after rising to 54.6 in August. A lessened 11.7% of respondents reported higher imports while an increased 13.4% reported decline. The inventory change index fell to 47.8 after rising to 53.2 and the order backlog index rose to 47.3 in September after declining to 40.4 in August. These series are not seasonally adjusted and not included in the ISM Services PMI total.

The ISM Services PMI is a composite index consisting of four equally weighted diffusion indexes: Business Activity, New Orders, Employment, and Supplier Deliveries. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the services sector, while below 50 suggests contraction. Supplier Deliveries is the only ISM index that is inversed; a reading above 50 indicates slower deliveries.

The ISM figures are available in Haver's **USECON** database, with additional detail in the **SURVEYS** database. The expectations figure from Action Economics is in the **AS1REPNA** database.

**Industry Decline and Household Finances** from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco is available h[ere](https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/economic-letter/2025/09/industry-decline-and-household-finances/).

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- Total services index falls to four-month low.	
- Business activity and new orders weaken.
- Prices index moved up sharply from 2024 low.

U.S. ISM Services PMI Declines in September; Price Index Edges Higher

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The standard and Poor’s composite Global PMIs for September showed broad weakness in the month compared to August. Only 7 reporters in the table showed improvement month-to-month while 12 showed deterioration. The average unweighted PMI value for September was 51.0 compared to 50.6 in August which surprisingly indicates an improvement. However, the median value showed a level of 50.0 in September compared to 50.4 in August, revealing deterioration. The breadth of comparison show a lot more weakness month-to-month than strength; however, the average and median data are at odds on what's happening on balance.

Compared to July the median data also showed that the September value was weaker; on average data, however, September is stronger compared to July. But both cases were dealing with rather small margins of change.

The sequential comparisons over three months, six months and 12 months chronicled in the table show all three horizons tilted toward improvement- even for the 3-month span in the face of the September broad deterioration. Median averages for each period are slightly weaker than average values but both comparisons show similar small improvements in the 3-month average compared to the 12-month average.

However, the average and mean value for the while span of data back to January 2021 are nearly identical and the ranking of the current September observations in that data is similar with a 54.5 percentile standing using the average of all rank standings on the period while the median of composite standings is at 52.6 percentile. Over the period, the rank standings show fourteen of nineteen observations are above the 50% mark putting them above the median for the period. Only five countries have composite PMIs below their median values since 2021. The laggards are Poland, Greece, Switzerland, the United Kingdom, and Norway. India has a ranking in its 98th percentile, but apart from that Slovenia has a 77th percentile ranking and the next tranche of rankings is in the sixtieth percentile encompassing Germany, Belgium, the Netherlands, the Czech Republic, Australia, and China. There are also four reporters with rankings above 50% but below 51%! These are France, Italy, Spain, and Hungary.

In comparisons, the high-low range rankings show countries generally much closer to their lower bound than their upper bound on the period, with Slovenia, Australia, India, and China as exceptions to this phenomenon.

The September data are bit disconcerting. But then the changes in the month are generally small. The average and median data for this group of countries shows average and median PMI values at 50 or 51. Both approaches are close to showing no or small output changes overall. While there have been swings in national data since 2023, there has been little trending at all as economic output has been mostly weak and showing little acceleration or deceleration except for specific countries over very short periods. The clear overriding trend has been sideways and weak. And it remains so.

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Global Composite PMIs Show September Set-back

Andrew Cates

**Policy rate expectations**
Interest rate expectations have edged toward a milder easing profile in recent months—largely because several central banks are already well into their easing cycles. Based on the latest Blue Chip Financial Forecasts survey, the consensus now looks for the largest cuts in the US (≈–0.9 percentage points) and a smaller move in the UK (≈–0.5pp) over the next 12 months. Expected declines are more limited in Australia (≈–0.35pp), Canada (≈–0.25pp) and the euro area (≈–0.25pp), reflecting the late-cycle phase of easing already delivered. Japan remains the outlier on the upside (≈+0.25–0.30pp) as the Bank of Japan continues a gradual normalisation. The pattern points to cautious, data-dependent central banks: some scope to trim rates where growth is cooling, but a softer glide path in economies that have already banked meaningful cuts.

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**Signals of supply-side resilience**
Equity markets have been buoyed by hopes that AI-driven productivity gains will provide a new leg of support for global growth, though hard evidence in the macro data remains elusive. One encouraging sign, however, comes from high-frequency indicators such as the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index, which has shown a steady run of upside surprises in global growth data over the past several months. At the same time, the Inflation Surprise Index has persistently undershot expectations, pointing to milder-than-feared price pressures. Taken together, these developments hint at possible supply-side improvements—consistent with the idea that productivity may be quietly strengthening, even if traditional measures are slow to capture it. The question for investors is whether this early pattern is sustainable or merely a temporary alignment of cyclical forces.

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**US company formation**
Another piece of evidence that hints at a possible shift in US productivity dynamics comes from the combination of rising business formation and stronger measured output per hour. Applications for high-propensity businesses—those most likely to generate sustained employment—have climbed markedly in recent years, and in parallel official productivity data have also shown a clear upturn since the pandemic shock. While both series are volatile and subject to revision, the persistence of this improvement suggests that the US may be entering a more dynamic phase of firm creation and efficiency gains. If AI adoption is acting as a catalyst for both new business models and more efficient production, then these developments could represent an early macro-level reflection of that trend.

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**US productivity trends**
Formal productivity gauges for the non-financial corporate sector have lifted above trend, but the rebound should be treated cautiously. Much of the recent strength may reflect post-COVID normalization—hours and capacity settling after stop-start disruptions, compositional shifts as weaker firms exited and re-entered, and cyclical capital deepening as investment caught up—alongside measurement noise and future revisions. These data are consistent with the possibility of underlying efficiency gains, including from digital and AI adoption, but they are not yet proof of a structural break. We’ll need sustained outperformance across multiple data vintages—and through a softer growth patch—to distinguish a true productivity revival from a cyclical bounce-back.

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**Semiconductor trade**
One area where the footprint of AI investment is already visible is in the semiconductor trade data. South Korea’s early export figures and Japan’s shipment values both show a sharp rebound over the past year, reversing the slump seen in 2022–23. Given that advanced chips are the essential input for AI infrastructure—from data centres to training models—this recovery provides a tangible sign of how global demand is being reshaped by the AI buildout. While semiconductor cycles are notoriously volatile and influenced by broader electronics demand, the scale and persistence of the current upswing suggest something more structural may be at play, reinforcing the idea that AI-related capital spending is starting to leave a measurable imprint on global trade flows.

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**Global defence spending**
While AI investment has dominated headlines as a prospective driver of global growth, it is important not to overlook other forces shaping capital spending. Defence outlays have accelerated, and while they are often prompted by geopolitical risk, parts of this spending can be productivity-enhancing—for example, investment in cyber security, advanced computing, space and satellite networks, resilient supply chains, and dual-use manufacturing that diffuses into the civilian economy. Even so, the opportunity cost and signalling effect of higher military budgets matter: they can crowd out other forms of capex, and the underlying uncertainty can weigh on trade, supply chains, and investor confidence. Taken together, these dynamics argue for caution: the AI boom may be fostering optimism about a new productivity era, but the broader backdrop—marked by rising defence demand with mixed spillovers and uneven sources of capex—still leaves the outlook fragile.

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Global financial markets have remained resilient in recent days, supported by a combination of easing inflation concerns, steady growth data, and hopes that geopolitical risks may ease following news of a potential Israel–Gaza peace plan. At the same time, investors are watching closely for signs of a US government shutdown, which could delay the release of key economic indicators, including Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report. Against this backdrop, the charts this week highlight a set of themes shaping the outlook. Policy rate expectations have shifted little, with markets still pricing in further cuts across most major economies over the next 12 months, with Japan the notable outlier (chart 1). In the meantime, optimism surrounding AI’s productivity potential continues to drive market sentiment, and while hard evidence in the data remains limited, there are tentative signs of improvement—global growth surprises have been positive (chart 2), US productivity and business formation are showing some improvement (charts 3 and 4), and semiconductor trade is rebounding as AI-related demand rises (chart 5). Yet caution is warranted: formal productivity measures may still reflect post-COVID cyclical effects, and the upswing in military spending underscores how geopolitical instability is also driving global investment trends, tempering the more upbeat AI narrative (chart 6).

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Charts of the Week: Signals, Surprises and Shifts

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The unemployment rate in the European Monetary Union (EMU) ticked up to 6.3% in August from 6.2% in July, rising one tenth of one percentage point from its all-time low. Even though this is an increase in the unemployment rate, it's a very small increase and it's an unemployment rate that is extremely low for the EMU. The unemployment rate is based on the 20 economies that report unemployment. However, the table reports 12-early reporters and long-standing EMU members that show that the unemployment rate increased in only five countries in August: Austria, Finland, Italy, Portugal, and the Netherlands. All the other countries listed in the table say their unemployment rates were either steady or lower on the month. In July, the unemployment rate rose month-to-month in only one country, which was Ireland where it went up to 4.8% from 4.6%. In June, the unemployment rate rose in only three countries: Austria, Finland, and Greece. Of course, the table is only a sample of countries; there are 20 countries that typically contribute data to the European Monetary Union aggregate. The full slate of data is represented in the EMU total as reported.

Sequential data that look at changes in unemployment rates over three months, six months and 12 months, show that among these 12 member countries over 3 months only four had unemployment rates increasing; over 6 months five countries had unemployment rates increasing; over 12 months seven countries have their unemployment rates higher.

When we take the reported unemployment rates as of August and put them in a queue of data back to the year 2000, there are only three countries in the monetary union that have unemployment rates that are above their median for that period. And those are Austria, Luxembourg, and Finland. All the rest of the countries have unemployment rates that rank below their 50th percentile which places them below their respective medians for that period.

In fact, apart from the three countries that have their unemployment rates above their respective medians, the rest (the remaining nine) rank in their bottom 25th percentiles. All of the highest-ranking unemployment rates among those nine are Ireland at the 23rd percentile, and Germany and Portugal at the 22nd percentile. Italy, for example, still has an unemployment rate that ranks at its 0.7 percentile. Greece's unemployment rate, even though it's 8.1%, has been lower only 3.3% of the time. The unemployment rate for the entire monetary union has been lower only 3.2% of the time. If we look at the broader unemployment rate for the European Union, it has been lower only 2.6% of the time.

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This is a period in history when the unemployment rates in the most developed economies globally have been very low. In the United States the unemployment rate rank is at its 24.6 percentile since 2000. The U.K. claimant count, which is more up to date than a broader unemployment rate, is higher, in its 59th percentile – above its median for the period. Japan's unemployment rate, which is not quite up to date, is still extremely low in its own historic profile.

Unemployment rates remain low, but inflation rates remained slightly above their targets for central banks that are targeting inflation. That raises some questions about what lies ahead. Will central banks be more aggressive to try to bring inflation down to target or will they continue to kick the can down the road and let inflation continue to overshoot for a while longer? It remains to be seen. At some point, central bank credibility requires hitting the target.

EMU Unemployment Ticks Higher 

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U.S. light vehicle sales rose 2.1% (4.2% y/y) to 16.72 million units (SAAR) during September after falling 3.0% to 16.37 million units in August. Sales during Q3 averaged 16.65 million after averaging 16.21 million in Q2. The improvement in September vehicle sales accompanied a 1.9% y/y rise in real disposable income through August, which compared to 2.2% growth last year.

Sales remained uneven last month. Light truck sales rose 3.0% (8.6% y/y) in September to 13.89 million units, after falling 3.9% in August. Purchases of domestically-made light trucks rose 5.6% (12.2% y/y) to 10.92 million units, after falling 4.2% in August. Sales of imported light trucks fell 5.1% (-2.9% y/y) to 2.97 million units, following a 3.4% August decline.

Trucks’ 83.1% share of the light vehicle market last month compared to 82.4% in August and 79.7% in September of last year. The share averaged 82.3% so far this year versus 56.9% ten years earlier.

Passenger car sales declined 2.1% (-12.9% y/y) last month to 2.83 million, following a 1.8% August increase. Purchases of domestically-produced cars fell 3.2% (-10.1% y/y) last month to 2.14 million units, after rising 1.4% in August. Sales of imported autos increased 1.4% (-20.5% y/y) to 0.70 million units after a 4.5% August increase.

Imports' 22.0% September share of the U.S. light vehicle market stood below August’s 23.3% share. These compare to a May 2023 low of 22.9% and a high of 26.3% in November of 2023. Imports' share of the passenger car market edged up to 24.7% last month from 23.9% in August. It reached a high of 38.7% in September 2021. Imports' share of the light truck market fell to 21.4% last month from 23.2% in August.

U.S. vehicle sales figures can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. Additional detail by manufacturer is in the **INDUSTRY** database.

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- Light truck sales improve while auto purchases move lower.
- Total vehicle sales increase moderately y/y.
- Imports' market share declines.

U.S. Light Vehicle Sales Rise in September

**US labour market data**
With the federal government shut down, several key US data releases have been suspended, including the Department of Labor’s national jobless‐claims reports that normally anchor weekly readings on labour-market momentum. To maintain visibility, the chart uses Haver Analytics’ state-sum methodology—adding up the figures published by individual state agencies to create a near-real-time proxy for the national series. The dark line shows the 4-week moving average of initial claims derived from this state-level aggregation, while the shaded bars plot the corresponding state-summed continued claims. Although not an official federal release, this construction provides an updated snapshot of layoffs and ongoing benefit rolls during the shutdown period, helping analysts track any softening or resilience in labour demand until the Department of Labor’s headline numbers resume.

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**Labour productivity trends**
As the next chart below indicates the US has outpaced peer economies on labour productivity in recent years. That’s a function of a number of factors including faster capital deepening and - arguably - a quicker diffusion of digital technologies. Surging investment in software, cloud and data-centre infrastructure—bolstered by deep capital markets and policy supports—has lifted output per hour in tech-heavy sectors and spilled over into business services. A flexible labour market has also arguably reallocated workers toward higher-productivity firms more rapidly than in Europe or Japan. Sector mix and energy costs matter too: the US has a much larger footprint in high-value services and enjoyed a relative energy-price advantage since 2022, while Germany and the UK faced an energy-intensive manufacturing slump that depressed measured productivity.

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**Electricity prices**
That linkage shows up starkly in electricity costs. The two-year average electricity price has been far lower in the US than in Europe or Japan, with France and Spain higher, Japan higher still, and Germany and the UK at the top end. The mapping to productivity is almost one-for-one: cheaper power supports capex, keeps energy-intensive inputs and data-centre compute affordable, and sustains margins in high-value services; expensive power squeezes manufacturers, curtails utilisation, and drags on measured output per hour. In other words, the same energy-price wedge that has undercut Germany and the UK since 2022 has amplified the US edge—helping explain why recent productivity gains have clustered where electricity is cheapest.

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**Natural capital**
The split in the next chart is telling: while produced capital per capita across the G7 economies has marched higher, natural capital per capita has drifted lower for most of the past decade. That erosion has arguably become central to the more active debate about why global productivity has struggled—depleted natural assets and tighter environmental constraints tend to raise real (inflation-adjusted) energy costs, increase maintenance and mitigation spending, and divert investment from expansion to replacement and resilience. In practice, more capex goes into hardening grids, meeting environmental standards, remediating land and water, and sourcing costlier energy inputs—outlays that protect activity but add less to measured output per hour. The result is a thinner productivity fabric: higher operating costs, slower diffusion of new capacity, and weaker multiplier effects from investment. In short, the gains in produced capital are increasingly offset by the drawdown of natural capital.

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**Japan’s politics**
Turning to Japan, politics has become the market driver. The leadership change in Tokyo over the past few days has been read as a green light for a more stimulative fiscal stance—and, by extension, a slower or softer path for Bank of Japan normalization of monetary policy. That mix has pushed domestic risk assets higher while taking some of the support out of the yen. In the chart, the Nikkei 225 has surged to fresh highs as investors price stronger nominal growth and policy backstops, whereas the yen has slipped against the dollar, reflecting expectations of wider policy differentials. The combination of easier fiscal, a still-accommodative BOJ, and a weaker currency has reinforced the equity rally—especially in exporters and cyclicals—even as it raises questions about the durability of yen weakness if inflation proves sticky.

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**Vietnam’s economy**
Vietnam has been in the headlines this week with Q3 GDP showing a steady re-acceleration. As the final chart below indicates, real GDP growth is pushing back toward the top of its post-pandemic range, with year-to-date household consumption firming alongside it—signs that the recovery is broadening beyond exports. Tailwinds include a rebound in electronics orders, ongoing supply-chain diversification into Vietnam, tourism’s return, and earlier monetary easing. But the outlook is not without hazards: escalating US tariff policies—both broad measures and sector-specific actions on tech and green goods—could disrupt export demand and complicate rules-of-origin strategies that currently favour Vietnam as a “China-plus-one” hub. Add lingering property-sector repair and infrastructure bottlenecks, and the near-term growth path remains constructive but sensitive to US trade developments.

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Financial markets have been navigating a US government shutdown that has frozen key data releases and muddied the macro picture, while political cross-currents in Europe and Asia have added to the noise—France has seen yet another prime minister resign, while Japan’s leadership change is being read as a tilt toward easier fiscal policy. With official US data dark, investors are leaning on proxies—such as Haver’s state-sum jobless-claims series—to keep tabs on labour market  momentum (chart 1). From there, our remaining charts this week point to an uneven global macroeconomic story: US labour productivity has remained well ahead of peers, a lead that maps closely to cheaper electricity—where power costs are low, capex and margins hold up; where they’re high, manufacturing strains and measured productivity sag (charts 2 and 3). Yet produced capital continues to climb even as natural capital per capita erodes, helping to keep real energy costs sticky and weighing on the world’s productivity fabric (chart 4). In markets, Japanese equities have surged on policy-support hopes even as yen softness lingers (chart 5), and in emerging Asia, Vietnam’s Q3 GDP shows re-acceleration and firming domestic demand, though exposure to evolving US tariff policies is keeping the export outlook uncertain (chart 6). Net-net: growth pockets persist, but high real energy costs, policy shifts, and patchy visibility argue for a choppy, bifurcated path ahead.

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Charts of the Week: Shutdowns and Shake-Ups

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