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Chart and compare multiple data series with accompanying data table of values

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DLX Add-ins for all versions of Excel provide instant data updates of entire workbooks

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[Matlab](http://matlab.com) by The MathWorks lets you access, visualize, and analyze historic time-series data to identify patterns or uncover complex relationships. From within a single environment you can:

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MATLAB

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[SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) is a seamless interface between Haver and SAS data processing that enables SAS users to read economic and financial time series data that reside in a Haver Analytics DLX (Data Link Express) database. [SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) requires both SAS/ETS and Base SAS Software.

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[RATS (Regression Analysis of Time Series) Econometric Software](https://estima.com) by Estima is a leading econometrics and time-series analysis software package. It provides ability to do linear and non-linear least squares, forecasting, SUR and ARIMA models and in addition, supports advanced techniques such as GMM, ARCH and GARCH models, state space models, and more.

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A popular open source option for statistical computing and graphics that is available on many UNIX platforms, Windows and MacOS

Estimating, evaluating, and forecasting ARIMA models

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Bootcamp and Econometric Tools 1 & 2

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Haver partners with SmartMacro Labs to offer a two week immersive online course introducing participants to the power of the Python programming language. This applied hands-on training develops statistical economics skills with a concentration on economics and finance.

Gain proficiency in building modern time-series models in Python through real-world applications. Designed for professionals in both the public and private sector, the course does not require prior experience, assuming only that participants have a basic understanding of regression and statistical concepts.

Proficiency working in Jupyter notebooks and the Python environment

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Remote Training: Applied Time Series in Python

US leader, Germany trailer for real GDP growth over past 3 years

Sandy Batten

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Job openings fell 275,000 (+0.3% y/y) in June to 7.437 million according to the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. This was the first monthly decline in three months. The June fall was in line with market expectations. The May figure was revised down slightly to 7.712 million from the previously reported 7.769 million. The job openings rate fell to 4.4% in June from 4.6% in May. This rate has fluctuated between 4.3% and 4.8% over the past year. The record high for this rate was 7.4% reached in March 2022. This rate is calculated as the ratio of job openings to total nonfarm employment plus openings. The number of openings in June was 422,000 higher than the number of people unemployed, an increase from 475,000 in May and well below the 1.0-1.2 million gap that existed just prior to the pandemic, pointing to generally softer labor-market conditions.

Private sector openings decreased 325,000 (+1.5% y/y) in June to 6.551 million from 6.876 million in May. This was only the second y/y increase since July 2022. The private openings rate fell to 4.6% in June from 4.8% in May. The number of job openings decreased in accommodation and food services (-308,000), health care and social assistance (-244,000), and finance and insurance (-142,000). The number of job openings increased in retail trade (+190,000), information (+67,000), and state and local government education (+61,000).

Total hiring fell 261,000 (+2.3% y/y) to 5.204 million in June from 5.465 million in May. The hiring rate slipped to 3.3% from 3.4%. The June reading for the rate was the second lowest since the pandemic. Private sector hiring fell 246,000 in June on top of a 150,000 decline in May. The slide in hiring was led by a 133,000 decline in professional and business services hiring and a 148,000 drop in leisure and hospitality hiring. Government hiring fell 14,000, the fifth monthly decline in the past six months.

Total separations declined 153,000 (-0.1% y/y) to 5.060 million in June, the lowest level since August 2020 and the third monthly decline in the past four months. The separation rate slipped to 3.2%, tying the lowest rate in more than a decade, from 3.3% in May. Private separations fell 76,000 while government separations dropped 77,000, the largest monthly decline since July 2022. Total quits fell 128,000 (-4.3% y/y) to 3.142 million in June, the second monthly decline in the past three months, with the quits rate unchanged at 2.0%. Private sector quits decreased 102,000 in June. Quits are generally voluntary separations initiated by the employee. Therefore, the quits rate can serve as a measure of workers’ willingness or ability to leave jobs. In contrast, layoffs and discharges are involuntary separations initiated by the employer. Layoffs and discharges edged down 7,000 to 1.604 million in June with private layoffs increasing 22,000 while government layoffs declined 29,000.

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) data are available in Haver’s **USECON** database.

- Job openings fell 275,000 in June after having risen in each of the previous two months.
- Hiring fell 261,000, the largest monthly decline since June 2024.
- Separations fell 153,000, led by a 128,000 decline in quits.
- Layoffs edged down 7,000, the third monthly decline in the past four months.

U.S. JOLTS—Openings and Hiring Slid in June

Winnie Tapasanun

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The advance estimate of the U.S. international trade deficit in goods unexpectedly narrowed to $85.99 billion in June after widening to $96.42 billion in May, data from the U.S. Census Bureau showed. The June reading, the second narrowing in the goods trade deficit in three months, was smaller than a $98.81 billion shortfall in June 2024. A deficit of $98.0 billion for June had been expected by the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The deficit reached a record $161.95 billion in March. In Q2'25, the goods trade deficit narrowed to $268.31 billion, the smallest since Q4'23, after ballooning to a record $465.03 billion in Q1'25; the monthly deficit averaged $89.44 billion in Q2'25, down from a record $155.01 billion in Q1'25.

Total goods exports fell 0.6% m/m (+3.6% y/y) to $178.16 billion in June, the lowest level since February, following a 5.7% drop to $179.26 billion in May and four straight m/m increases. April registered a record high of $190.08 billion. Exports had fallen 2.0% since a July 2022 high. The fall in exports in June was led by an 8.1% decrease (-0.04% y/y) in exports of industrial supplies & materials. To the upside, exports for the following end-use categories rose m/m in June: other goods (5.5%; 22.8% y/y), capital goods excluding autos (4.7%; 11.0% y/y), foods, feeds & beverages (4.0%; 1.3% y/y), automotive vehicles & parts (1.6%; -15.8% y/y), and nonfood consumer goods excluding autos (1.5%; 3.5% y/y).

Total goods imports slid 4.2% m/m (-2.5% y/y), the fourth monthly slide in five months, to $264.15 billion in June, the lowest level since March 2024, following a 0.1% downtick to $275.68 billion in May. March registered a record high of $344.59 billion. Imports had fallen 8.6% since a March 2022 high. The slide in imports in June reflected m/m declines in most imports end-use categories. These included drops of 12.4% (-13.1% y/y) in nonfood consumer goods excluding autos, 5.5% (-12.6% y/y) in industrial supplies & materials, 2.0% (-10.6% y/y) in automotive vehicles & parts, 1.3% (+11.8% y/y) in other goods, and 1.1% (+4.2% y/y) in foods, feeds & beverages. In contrast, imports of capital goods excluding autos, the only end-use category with a monthly increase in June, rose 0.6% (13.9% y/y), the seventh m/m rise in eight months, on top of a 0.3% May rebound.

The advance international trade data can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. The expectation figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, which is in **AS1REPNA**.

- Deficit: $85.99 bil. in June, smaller than $96.42 in May.
- Exports -0.6%, down for the second straight month, led by an 8.1% decline in exports of industrial supplies & materials.
- Imports -4.2%, down for the fourth month in five, led by a 12.4% drop in nonauto consumer goods imports.

U.S. Goods Trade Deficit Unexpectedly Narrows in June

Tom Moeller

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U.S. house prices weakened 0.2% (+2.8% y/y) during May after falling 0.3% in April, revised from down 0.4% and holding steady in March, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price Index.

House price changes were mixed across the nine Census divisions of the country. Prices fell 0.8% (+5.9% y/y) in the Middle Atlantic region and 0.2% (+5.2% y/y) in the East North Central region. Prices were down 0.1% (+1.4% y/y) in the South Atlantic region, 0.6% (+4.0% y/y) in the East South Central region and 0.6% (+0.6% y/y) in the Pacific regions. House price increases were logged in New England where they rose 0.3% (5.3% y/y) and in the West North Central region where they increased 0.2% (3.8% y/y). Home prices also rose 0.3% (0.9% y/y) in the West South Central region and 0.1% (1.2% y/y) in the Mountain region.

The FHFA house price index is a weighted purchase-only index that measures average price changes in repeat sales of the same property. An associated quarterly index includes refinancing the same kind of properties. The indexes are based on transactions involving conforming conventional mortgages purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Only mortgage transactions on single-family properties are included.
The FHFA data are available in Haver’s **USECON** database.

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- Prices edge lower m/m.
- Annual increase moves to two-year low.
- Price changes are uneven amongst regions.

U.S. FHFA House Prices Fall Further in May

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Retail gasoline prices for all grades averaged $3.25 per gallon (-9.8% y/y) last week for the fourth straight week. Prices remained above their low of $3.13 in the week of December 9. The recent high was $3.79 in the week ending April 22, 2024. Their all-time high of $5.11 occurred in the week ending June 13, 2022. The retail price for on-highway diesel fuel held at $3.81 per gallon (+1.0% y/y) in the week of July 21 after rising slightly to $3.76 in the prior week. The latest diesel price stood well below a high of $4.63 in the week ending September 18, 2023 and a peak of $5.81 in the week ending June 20, 2022.

The price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil declined to $65.97 per barrel (-16.3% y/y) in the week ended July 25. The drop left prices at the lowest level in four weeks. Prices nonetheless remained above a $59.04 low in the second week of May. The cost of crude oil peaked at $120.46 in the week of June 10, 2022. Yesterday, the price was $66.71 per barrel. The price of European Brent crude eased to $70.09 per barrel (-15.1% y/y) in the week of July 25 after falling to $70.66 in the prior week. Prices remained below a recent high of $95.61 in the week of September 29, 2023 and below a peak of $127.40 in June 2022. The price was $70.87 yesterday.

Natural gas prices slipped to an average $3.19/mmbtu (+54.9% y/y) in the week ended July 25, after rising to an average $3.39/mmbtu in the prior week. Prices remained well above a low of $1.40/mmbtu in the week of March 15, 2024 but below their peak of $9.56 in the week of August 26, 2022. Yesterday, the price was $3.12 per mmbtu.

Gasoline demand declined 4.9% y/y in the four weeks ending July 18 following a 1.6% y/y decline in the prior four weeks. Demand for all petroleum products held steady y/y in the four weeks ending July 18 after a 1.1% y/y decline in the previous four-week period. Crude oil input to refineries rose 1.0% y/y in the four weeks ending July 18 after a 0.9% y/y gain in the prior four weeks.

Gasoline inventories rose 1.6% y/y in the week ending July 18 after a 0.1% y/y dip in the prior week. Residual fuel oil inventories fell 23.0% y/y in the week of July 18, after a 27.0% y/y fall in the prior week. Crude oil inventories rose 1.3% y/y in the week of July 18 after the same y/y rise in the previous two weeks.

Measured in days’ supply, gasoline inventories rose to 26.2 days in the week of July 18 from 25.9 days in the prior week. The recent low was 22.9 days in the week of November 8, 2024. The supply of crude oil eased to 24.7 days in the week of July 18 from 24.9 days in the prior week, and remained below a high of 31.9 days in the week of March 3, 2023.

These data are reported by the Energy Information Administration of the U.S. Department of Energy. The price and supply/demand data can be found in Haver’s **WEEKLY** & **USENERGY** database.

- Gasoline prices hold steady.
- Crude oil prices decline.
- Natural gas prices ease.

U.S. Energy Prices Are Fairly Stable in Latest Week

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Texas manufacturing sector activity improved in July, according to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. The General Business Activity index rose to 0.9% this month from -12.7% in June, but remained below a high of +14.1 in January. A higher 22.1% of respondents reported improved business activity in July. The Future Business Activity index strengthened to 19.0 this month to its highest level since January. The data were collected from July 15 to 23 from 81 manufacturing firms.

The production index strengthened to 21.3 from 1.3 in June and stood at the highest level since December 2021. A higher 35.2% of respondents reported increasing production. The employment index rose in July to 8.4, its best reading since September 2023 as 17.4% of respondents reported higher employment for the month. The hours worked measure surged to 7.7 from -8.4. The capital expenditures index remained positive at 6.8 after surging to 10.9 in June. The shipments reading increased to 2.7 after falling to -7.3 in June. The growth rate of new orders index rose to -9.1 from -17.2; it has not been positive since January.

Inflation indicators weakened this month. The index for prices received for finished goods declined to 11.1 after rising to 26.1 in June. It was the lowest level since March. A lessened 15.8% of respondents reported raising prices this month while a higher 4.7% reported lowering prices. The index of prices paid for raw materials fell to 41.7 from 43.0, but remained up from a low of 1.0 in June 2023. The wages & benefits index eased to 13.2 this month after falling to 13.4 in June, and has been trending lower since a high of 50.6 in May 2022.

The rise in the Future Manufacturing Activity Index reflected a strengthening in expected new orders growth to 18.8 from 15.3 and expected production to 30.3 from 22.6. The future employment reading strengthened to 27.3, its highest level since January. The future wages & benefits reading rose to 37.2 after doubling to 32.1 in June. The future capital spending reading, however, eased to 15.5 and remained below its January high of 27.3.

Each index is calculated by subtracting the percentage reporting a decrease in activity from the percentage reporting an increase. When all firms report rising activity, an index will register 100. An index will register -100 when all firms report a decrease. An index will be zero when the number of firms reporting an increase equals the number reporting a decrease. Data for the Texas Manufacturing Outlook, conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, can be found in Haver's **SURVEYS** database.

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- Survey turns positive for first time in six months.
- Production, employment & hours-worked readings improve.
- Prices and wages & benefits indicators weaken.

Texas Manufacturing Activity Index Turns Positive in July; Expectations Strengthen

Robert Brusca

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The severe lethargy in U.K. retail and wholesale sales continues into July with the outlook portion of the survey for August still exceptionally weak.

**Distributive sales retail volumes**
**Sales in July**: In July, the distributive trades volume survey finds sales for a year ago with 34% of the respondents indicating weaker sales compared to those indicating stronger sales. This net reading of -34 is a slight improvement from June’s -46 and signals deterioration compared to May (-27) as well. However, beyond the monthly bumping up and down, the ranking of this net reading is in the lower 8.5 percentile marking it as truly an exceptionally weak reading. The reading for orders compared to a year ago shows better comparisons but still a great deal of weakness and a net reading of -21, compared to -51 in June and -41 in May. It marks a 20th percentile standing, which is better than for sales compared to a year ago but still exceptionally weak. The next reading that, essentially is seasonally adjusted, comparing sales for the same time of year, shows a -10 reading which is better than -37 in June and better than May’s reading of -19 and steps up to a percentile standing at its 42nd percentile. It is still short of its median (which occurs at a ranking of 50%) but is a reading that looks a little closer to the land of the living than the land of the dead.

**Expected sales in August**: The distributive volumes statistics for sales expected for August, looking a month ahead, shows negative readings across the board for these same 3 metrics with all three of them improving in August from their July expectations; however, sales compared to a year ago have a 7-percentile standing, even weaker than their current July reading, orders have a 23.5 percentile standing, and sales for the time of year fare much worse with a 6.7 percentile reading - much worse than the current performance ranked for July. In short, there's very little in this survey that is encouraging or reassuring. Conditions are weak and even where there is improvement the new reading is still very weak and the expectations readings, while somewhat improved, are still extremely weak.

**Distributive sales wholesale volumes**
**Sales in July**: The distributive trades survey for wholesaling produces another set of weak readings that are, for the most part, weaker in July than they were in June and, while different, not much better, or worse than they were in May. The percentile standings for wholesaling show sales compared to a year ago at a 7.4 percentile standing, orders compared to a year ago at a 3.2 percentile standing, and sales for the time of year at a 1.8 percentile standing. All of these are simply exceptionally weak.

**Expected sales volumes in wholesaling**: Turning to the expected sales for August once again, all the readings are net negatives; two out of three of them show some improvement compared to their July values; however, the rankings remained exceptionally weak. Sales compared to a year ago are at a 9.1 percentile standing, orders compared to a year ago are at a 5.3 percentile standing, and sales for the time of year are at a 2.1 percentile standing. The results for expected sales and orders in the wholesaling survey are extremely grim.

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**Summing up**
Neither the trends nor the standings and neither the wholesaling nor the retailing surveys are encouraging. The current results are weak, and the expected data are weak and, in many ways, worse. It's discouraging, after a period when sales have been this weak, for merchants to continue to flounder and continue to register such dire expectations for the future. Very often when conditions are extremely weak, expectations will form for a future where things are ‘bound to be better’ even if the hopes are built on thin evidence. But in this case, we do not see evidence of any hope taking root – just weak results and more pessimism.

United Kingdom

U.K. CBI Distributive Trades Survey: Still Very Weak - Depressing

Tian Yong Woon

This week, we examine a series of major US trade and tariff developments since early July. The US has expanded its network of bilateral trade deals, including deals with Indonesia and the Philippines, both securing tariff rates of 19%. Meanwhile, former President Trump has seemingly raised the general tariff floor from 10% to 15%, potentially affecting countries like Australia, New Zealand, and Singapore (see chart 1). India, once expected to be among the first to reach a deal, has yet to finalize an agreement ahead of the August 1 deadline. Attention remains on China’s suspected use of transshipments through third countries to circumvent tariffs. One possible, though inconclusive, indicator is the decline in China’s direct exports to the US alongside stable overall export levels—suggesting either the use of transshipment routes or a broader redirection of exports to other markets (see chart 2).

Japan also recently struck a significant deal with the US, reducing its reciprocal tariff from 24% to 15%. This announcement boosted Japanese equities and the yen (see chart 3). However, Japan’s auto exports to the US continue to decline, with firms absorbing tariff-related costs to maintain competitiveness (see chart 4). Despite political uncertainty following the ruling LDP’s losses in recent upper house elections, Japanese markets have remained resilient (see chart 5). As the Bank of Japan prepares to announce its next rate decision, real wages have posted their sharpest decline in two years, while household spending—driven by car purchases—has surged (see chart 6).

**Latest US tariff developments**
Several significant US trade developments have occurred since early July. Notably, the number of bilateral trade deals secured by the US has increased. For instance, Indonesia reached an agreement that reduced tariffs from 32% to 19%, while the Philippines avoided a previously threatened 20% rate, settling instead at 19%. Meanwhile, former President Trump has reportedly raised the tariff floor from 10% to 15%. This suggests that countries previously facing the 10% rate—such as Australia, New Zealand, and Singapore (which runs a trade surplus with the US)—will now be subject to higher duties, as illustrated in chart 1. In contrast, India, once expected to be among the first to reach a deal, has yet to produce a substantive agreement as the August 1 deadline approaches.

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Among the ongoing discussions, a key talking point remains the US's continued concern over China’s use of transshipments through third countries to circumvent US tariffs. One Asian economy that has come under scrutiny is Vietnam. While Vietnam has secured a trade deal with the US—lowering its general tariff rate to 20%—the agreement includes a specific provision: “transshipments” of goods face a 40% tariff. As shown in chart 2, there are signs, though not confirmations, that such practices may be occurring. For example, while China’s direct exports to the US have been declining, its overall export growth has remained steady. This could suggest, among other causes, the use of transshipment routes or simply a rerouting of Chinese exports to other markets to sustain growth.

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**The US-Japan trade deal**
Japanese equities and the yen have surged following the announcement of the US–Japan trade deal (chart 3), which lowered Japan’s reciprocal tariff rate from an original 24% to 15%. In exchange, Japan has reportedly agreed to, among other terms, a $550 billion package of investments in, and loans to, the US. The country’s auto industry, which had previously faced a 27.5% tariff—due to the US’s 25% sectoral tariff and an existing 2.5% duty—also saw its rate reduced to 15%, likely to the great relief of Japanese carmakers. That said, while the new 15% rate marks a substantial drop from the earlier 24%, Japan remains worse off compared to the pre–Liberation Day baseline. As for the yen, it had already begun to strengthen prior to the deal’s announcement. Despite the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) suffering a notable loss in the recent upper house elections, the outcome appeared to fall within investor expectations, possibly triggering a round of precautionary yen selling beforehand. More on Japan’s elections will be covered in a later section.

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**Japan’s auto industry**
Meanwhile, sectoral tariffs on key Japanese industries—particularly autos—continue to weigh on the country’s economic outlook. Many of Japan’s major car exporters have reportedly avoided raising prices significantly, choosing instead to absorb most of the cost from US auto tariffs, likely in an effort to maintain market share. However, gradual price increases may follow if automakers can no longer sustain these margins. As shown in chart 5, the value of Japan’s motor vehicle exports to the US has already declined sharply. This is likely due to manufacturers absorbing the tariff burden, a trend also reflected in Japan’s export price data. As such, the impact on Japanese automakers’ bottom lines is already becoming evident. That said, the production capacity of Japanese carmakers in the US—which many firms are actively working to expand—offers some relief from declining exports. Additionally, the recently announced reduction in US auto tariffs on Japan will likely alleviate, though not eliminate, the pressure on Japan’s auto industry.

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**Japan’s upper house elections**
Japanese assets have rallied despite heightened policy uncertainty (chart 5), as the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) suffered a major setback in recent upper house elections, losing its majority along with coalition partner Komeito. This follows an earlier defeat in the October 2024 snap elections, when the LDP also lost its majority in the lower house. As a result, the coalition must now rely on support from opposition parties to pass legislation in both chambers—granting opposition groups, which hold diverse and often conflicting policy views, greater influence over future policymaking. The election results come amid mounting domestic challenges, particularly inflation, with rising rice prices drawing widespread concern. Speculation has intensified over whether Prime Minister Ishiba may resign, though he has consistently denied any such plans.

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**The Bank of Japan**
Lastly, we turn to the Bank of Japan (BoJ), which is set to announce its interest rate decision this week. Markets broadly expect the BoJ to keep rates unchanged for now, with any further hikes likely deferred. This comes amid heightened political uncertainty following the ruling LDP’s significant defeat in the recent upper house elections, casting fresh doubt on Prime Minister Ishiba’s leadership. The BoJ’s path toward further policy normalisation is also being complicated by weakening wage growth. Earlier momentum has faded, with nominal wages rising just 1.4% year-on-year in May, as shown in chart 6. Combined with still-elevated inflation, real wages posted their sharpest decline in two years during the month. Nonetheless, household spending saw a notable surge in May. However, this was largely driven by car purchases, which benefited from low base effects due to safety-related scandals a year earlier.

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Asia

Economic Letter from Asia: Dealing with it

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Durable goods orders fell 9.3% (+10.9% y/y) in during June after rising 16.5% in May, revised from 16.4%. Orders in April fell 6.6%. A 10.0% decline had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.

The decline reflected a near-halving of orders for commercial aircraft which pulled total transportation equipment orders down 22.4% (+30.5% y/y). Orders excluding transportation rose 0.2% last month (2.2% y/y) after a 0.6% rise in May. Orders for computers & electronic products rose 0.6% (4.8% y/y) after rising 1.7% in May. Orders for machinery gained 0.4% (3.2% y/y) for the second straight month while electrical equipment, appliances & components orders inched 0.1% higher (4.7% y/y) following a 0.8% May rise. Primary metals orders gained 0.6% (-0.5% y/y) in June following a 0.7% gain and fabricated metals orders rose 0.2% (3.2% y/y) after surging 1.1% in May. Defense aircraft orders rose 9.1% (7.4% y/y) after a 10.2% May decline.

Total shipments increased 0.4% (1.8% y/y) in June following a 0.2% May rise. Shipments of durable goods industries rose 0.5% (2.9% y/y) in June after improving 0.2% in May. Transportation equipment shipments rose 0.8% (4.2% y/y) and machinery shipments gained 1.0% (1.5% y/y). Computer & electronic product shipments edged 0.1% higher (6.3% y/y) and electrical equipment & appliance & components shipments rose 0.7% (4.9% y/y). Primary metals shipments gained 0.6% (2.5% y/y) while fabricated metals shipments rose 0.2% (1.9% y/y). Shipments of nondurable goods 	rose 0.4% (0.6% y/y) following a 0.1% gain.

Unfilled orders for all manufactured products jumped 1.0% (7.1% y/y) in June after a 3.4% May rise. Excluding transportation, unfilled orders rose 0.1% (0.8% y/y), the same as in May. Backlogs of durable goods rose 1.0% (7.1% y/y) in June, reflecting a 1.6% jump (11.4% y/y) in transportation equipment, led by a 2.1% rise (14.7% y/y) in nondefense aircraft. Machinery backlogs eased 0.1% (-1.8% y/y) in June. Electrical equipment, appliances & component backlogs rose 0.1% (1.0% y/y). Order backlogs of computers & electronic products eased 0.1% (-0.2% y/y), off slightly for the third straight month.

Inventories of all manufactured products rose 0.2% (1.1% y/y) in June following a 0.1% gain in May and a 0.1% April decline. Durable goods inventories rose 0.2% (1.5% y/y) for the second straight month. Inventories of machinery gained 0.4% (2.3% y/y) while computer & electronic product inventories rose 0.1% (0.3% y/y) for the second straight month. Transportation inventories eased 0.1% (+1.6% y/y).

The factory sector data are available in Haver’s **USECON** database. The Action Economics Forecast Survey is in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Orders excluding transportation weaken.
- Shipments strengthen.
- Unfilled orders surge, led by aircraft; inventories increase slightly.

U.S. Advance Durable Goods Orders Decline in June as Aircraft Bookings Plunge

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At today’s meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, the target range for the Fed funds rate was left unchanged at 4.25% to 4.50%, where it has been since the beginning of 2025, following reductions at three consecutive meetings in the fall of 2024. Rates remain below the high of 5.25% to 5.50% in place in mid-September. Today’s target range matched expectations in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.

The following statement was released after today’s meeting: “Although swings in net exports continue to affect the data, recent indicators suggest that growth of economic activity moderated in the first half of the year. The unemployment rate remains low, and labor market conditions remain solid. Inflation remains somewhat elevated.”

The statement went on to note: “The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. Uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated. The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.”

The Fed also stated, “The Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage backed securities.”

The U.S. economic figures can be found in Haver’s **USECON** database & the interest rate data are in the **WEEKLY** & **DAILY** databases. The expectations figure is contained in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- FOMC holds funds rate target at late-December level.
- Decision was not unanimous with two FOMC members voting for a 25 basis point cut.

FOMC Targeted Funds Rate Range Is Unchanged

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