Haver’s data services are provided through the DLX platform; delivering tools for data management, visualization, modeling and publishing. DLX is designed to increase productivity and integrates with Excel, PowerPoint, and major statistical software packages; MatLab, R, Python, SAS, E-views and Stata. DLX component application DLXVG3 offers precision graphics, publishing, analytic tools, and easy navigation for all Haver databases.

icon-chart.png

Chart and compare multiple data series with accompanying data table of values

Advanced functions (growth rates, moving averages, aggregation, seasonal adjustment)

Analytical tools (cycle charts, scatterplots, trend lines, and recession shading)

Complete graph customization (axis scaling, sizing, formatting, styles)

Excel and PowerPoint direct export and complete integration (dynamic spreadsheets and presentations update on a click)

DLXVG3

icon-db.png

DLX Add-ins for all versions of Excel provide instant data updates of entire workbooks

Use DLXVG3 to locate data series codes from within any file, easily creating new spreadsheets for analysis

Edit date ranges, archive data, apply functions

Excel Spreadsheet Add-ins

icon-time.png

Haver offers timely, accurate, and professionally supported data via an update service, meeting the strictest demands of the institutional research community

AutoUpdate provides fast and reliable data updates within seconds of source releases

Timer service runs continuously on an hourly basis when DLX is running

Manual updates offer clients the independence to update data retrievals on any desired schedule

All database updates retrieve only the data series that have changed and send only the data points that have been updated; including revisions

Timely Updates

DLX software tools to convert data into many different formats needed for diverse analytical frameworks

Haver supports a DLX API permitting clients to leverage and build processes with DLX data

Database Compatibility

products-dlx.svg

Data Link Express

Platform Independent site delivering DLX Databases across any workstation or device.

products-haverview.svg

HaverView

[Matlab](http://matlab.com) by The MathWorks lets you access, visualize, and analyze historic time-series data to identify patterns or uncover complex relationships. From within a single environment you can:

- Access data from multiple sources including files, spreadsheets, databases, data providers, and the Web
- Store data in financial time-series objects to simplify data management, data transformation, missing-data handling, and date-math calculations
- Perform technical analysis with moving averages, oscillators, stochastics, and indices
- Create custom analysis routines and visualizations or animations to capture, present, and share your analysis processes and discoveries
- Customize your analysis environment with advanced functionality from signal processing, statistics, or econometrics

products-matlab.svg

MATLAB

[Stata Data Analysis and Statistical Software](https://www.stata.com) by StataCorp LP is an integrated statistical package designed for researchers of all disciplines. It provides the ability to do data analysis, data management and graphics and has features such as multiple imputation, factor variables, GMM, competing-risks regression, state-space modeling, predictive margins, and more.

products-stata.svg

Stata

[SAS](https://www.sas.com) provides an integrated environment for predictive and descriptive modeling, data mining, text analytics, forecasting, optimization, simulation, experimental design and more. From predictive analytics to model deployment and process optimization, SAS provides a range of techniques and processes for the collection, classification, analysis and interpretation of data to reveal patterns, anomalies, key variables and relationships, leading ultimately to new insights and better answers faster.

[SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) is a seamless interface between Haver and SAS data processing that enables SAS users to read economic and financial time series data that reside in a Haver Analytics DLX (Data Link Express) database. [SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) requires both SAS/ETS and Base SAS Software.

products-sas.svg

[RATS (Regression Analysis of Time Series) Econometric Software](https://estima.com) by Estima is a leading econometrics and time-series analysis software package. It provides ability to do linear and non-linear least squares, forecasting, SUR and ARIMA models and in addition, supports advanced techniques such as GMM, ARCH and GARCH models, state space models, and more.

products-rats.svg

RATS

Session 1: Bootcamp Part 1

Visualization with GGPlot2 and data analysis

Session 2: Bootcamp Part 2

Session 3: Univariate Models Part 1

Session 4: Univariate Models Part 2

Session 5: Vector Autoregressions

Session 6: Cointegration and error-correction models

A popular open source option for statistical computing and graphics that is available on many UNIX platforms, Windows and MacOS

Estimating, evaluating, and forecasting ARIMA models

Understanding the concept of non-stationarity and testing for unit roots

Estimating autoregressions, granger causality tests, and impulse response functions

Understanding the concept of cointegration and testing using the Enger-Granger test

Estimating and forecasting with vector error correction models

products-r.svg

Teaches econometrics and forecasting at the University of Colorado Denver. He has over 15 years of econometric experience in both the private and public sector.

Daniel L. Jerrett, Ph.D.

Abdel M. Zellou, Ph.D.

Bootcamp and Econometric Tools 1 & 2

Econometrics Training: Applied Time Series in R

Session 5: Multivariate Models Part 1

Session 6: Multivariate Models Part 2

Haver partners with SmartMacro Labs to offer a two week immersive online course introducing participants to the power of the Python programming language. This applied hands-on training develops statistical economics skills with a concentration on economics and finance.

Gain proficiency in building modern time-series models in Python through real-world applications. Designed for professionals in both the public and private sector, the course does not require prior experience, assuming only that participants have a basic understanding of regression and statistical concepts.

Proficiency working in Jupyter notebooks and the Python environment

products-python.svg

Remote Training: Applied Time Series in Python

Renewed supply chain pressures point to a rebound in global inflation ahead

Winnie Tapasanun

240611A10.jpg

240611B10.jpg

Mortgage applications gained 12.5% w/w (22.1% y/y) in the week ending June 6 following a 3.9% decline in the week ending May 30, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey. The latest reading was the first weekly rise since the May 9 week to the index level of 254.6, the highest since the April 11 week. Applications for loans to purchase a house rebounded 10.3% (18.9% y/y) in the June 6 week, the second w/w rise in three weeks, after a 4.4% drop in the May 30 week. Applications for loan refinancing recovered 15.6% (27.5% y/y) in the June 6 week, the first w/w rise since the May 2 week, following a 3.5% decline in the previous week.

The effective interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate loan edged up to 7.12% in the week ending June 6, the fourth w/w increase in five weeks, after dropping to 7.11% in the week ending May 30; it was up from a low of 6.29% in the September 20 week but down from a peak of 8.12% in the week of October 20, 2023. The rate on 15-year fixed-rate mortgages fell 9bps to 6.33% in the June 6 week, the lowest since the May 16 week, after rising to 6.42% in the previous week; it was up from a low of 5.60% in the September 20 week but down from a high of 7.44% in the week of October 27, 2023. The rate on 30-year jumbo loans inched up to 7.11% in the June 6 week, the first w/w increase in three weeks, after declining to 7.10% in the prior week; it was up from a low of 6.57% in the September 13 week but below a high of 7.99% in the week of October 27, 2023. The rate on a 5-year ARM rose 4bps to 6.34% in the June 6 week, up for the second week in three, after falling to 6.30% in the previous week; it was above a low of 5.84% in the September 13 week but down from a high of 7.31% in the week of October 27, 2023.

The share of applications for refinancing an existing loan rose to 36.7% of total applications in the week ending June 6 from 35.2% in the week ending May 30, registering the third w/w rise in four weeks and the highest since the May 2 week; however, that was down from a peak of 55.7% in the September 20 week. Meanwhile, the adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity inched up to 7.2% in the June 6 week, the second w/w increase in three weeks, after falling to 7.1% in the prior week; it was up from a low of 4.7% in the January 3 week but below its recent high of 9.6% in the April 11 week and a high of 10.7% in the week of October 27, 2023.

The average size of a mortgage loan rebounded 0.4% w/w (2.8% y/y) to $383,700 in the June 6 week, the first weekly increase since the May 2 week, after a 1.0% decrease to $382,000 in the May 30 week. The average size of a purchase loan, up for the first week in four, rose 0.8% (3.1% y/y) to $441,900 in the June 6 week, the highest level since the May 16 week, following a 0.6% decline to $438,500 in the prior week. The average size of a loan to refinance a mortgage grew 2.0% (4.5% y/y), the first w/w increase since the May 2 week, to a three-week-high $283,400 in the June 6 week, reversing a 1.4% fall to $277,900 in the previous week.

The Mortgage Bankers Association Survey covers 75% of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts. The base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100. The figures for weekly mortgage applications and interest rates are available in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database.

- Purchase applications (+10.3%) and refinancing loan applications (+15.6%) rebound w/w.
- Effective interest rate on 30-year fixed-rate loans edges up to 7.12%.
- Average loan size rebounds.

U.S. Mortgage Applications Jump 12.5% in the June 6 Week After Three Straight W/W Declines

Robert Brusca

250611E.jpg

Japan’s PPI in April edged higher, rising by 0.1% month-to-month. For all manufacturing, the PPI stepped back and declined by 0.4% month-to-month. Both of these follow stronger increases in the previous months.

Still, these headline PPI shows a gain of 4.1% over 12 months, an expansion pace of 3.9% annualized over six months and a gain over three months at an annual rate of 3.6%, a steady, but moderate, deceleration for inflation.

Manufacturing prices rose by 2.3% over 12 months and accelerated slightly to an annualized pace of 2.6% over six months before slipping into low gear and rising at just a 1.6% annual rate over three months.

Japan’s CPI also decelerates on this sequential timeline, but with a hump in the middle after accelerating over six months. The U.S. PPI has that same profile. Japan’s core exhibits barebones deceleration; after rising at a 1.6% annual rate over 12 months, it settled into a gain of 1.5% annualized over both three months and six months. Producer prices in the EMU show ongoing declines with a lesser decline over six months, then, a greater pace of decline over three months, at -5.5%.

These comparisons reveal a rather broad-based trend for inflation to ease and weaken, especially over the recent three months.

A big part of inflation going weak over three months is oil prices. Oil prices (Brent) fell by 17.9% in April. They also fell at a 54.4% annual rate over three months, a 25.2% pace over six months, and at 28.2% over 12 months. Falling energy prices, especially if they fall long enough and sharply enough, get into the pricing system and have an impact beyond headline prices. We are seeing that on global basis, right now.

U.S. and EMU PPIs as well as Japan’s PPI and manufacturing prices all show positive correlations ranging from 0.37 to 0.53 with Brent prices with both series expressed as year-on-year percentage changes. Japanese CPI prices, however, show negative correlations between energy prices and headline core inflation rates, -0.15 to -0.37.

One month in the second quarter data show U.S. and PPIs revealing declines in prices along with Japan’s manufacturing price index. In this nascent quarter, Brent prices are edging lower at a 0.2% annualized rate. Still, Japan’s CPI is rising at a 1.4% annual rate and the core at a 1.7% annual rate as Japan’s CPI continues to resist the siren call of lower prices from the Brent index.

250611.jpg

The Bank of Japan has been on a mission to tighten rates. But the global environment offers a lot of choice, making policy decisions more treacherous. The U.S. and Japan are deep into talks about tariffs. President Trump reports that the U.S. and China have reached a deal about Chinese rare earth minerals and other matters of interest to China. In the U.S. today the CPI failed to light up any inflation signals despite many in markets being on an inflation watch. China has been turning out weak prices showing year-on-year CPI declines. So, the global environment, while perhaps at risk to Trump’s tariffs, is still an uneven place. Moreover, the U.S. appears to be pursuing a policy path designed more to cut deals than to enshrine high tariff revenues. But all this is premature. Trade deals can always blow up at the last minute. For now, global inflation appears to be contained, global growth appears to be weak, and inflation remains broadly contained.

Japan

Japan’s PPI Shows Inflation Slowing

Tom Moeller

250610T1.jpg

250610U1.jpg

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index increased 3.1% to 98.8 in May after falling 1.6% to an unrevised 95.8 in April, according to the Small Business Economic Trends survey conducted by the National Federation of Independent Business. The index also fell in each month from January through April. It increased 9.2% y/y through May. Seven of the ten index components increased last month. The NFIB Small Business Uncertainty Index rose 2.2% (10.6% y/y) in May to 94, after falling sharply in the prior two months.

The outlook for business conditions improved in the latest survey. The net balance of respondents expecting the economy to improve rose to 25% last month from 15% in April. An increased 10% expected higher real sales in six months, compared to -1% in April. An increased 10% of respondents indicated that now was a good time to expand the business. The figure remained up from 4% last September.

Plans to make capital outlays improved to 22% of firms after falling to 18% in April. Plans to add to inventories rose to 1% of survey respondents, improved from the April deterioration to -4%. The index of expected credit conditions rose to -4% last month, up from the April deterioration to -7%. It remained up from a low of -11 in November 2023. On the labor front, the percent planning to increase employment eased to 12% from 13% in April. A slightly higher 48% of businesses reported few or no qualified workers to fill job openings in May, after holding at 47% in April. These readings remained below a high of 61% in May 2022.

The net percent of firms reporting higher earnings weakened to -26% last month after improving to -21% in April. The figure was increased from the August low of -37%.

On the pricing front, the net percent raising their average selling prices held at 25% last month. It had grown to 32% in February. The percentage planning to raise prices rose to 31% in May from 28% in April. Worker compensation retreated as a net 26% of respondents lifted compensation during the last three months versus 33% in the last survey. Compensation gains peaked at 50% of firms in January 2022. An increased net 20% of firms are making plans to raise worker compensation in the next three months, below November’s high of 28%.

Taxes were reported as the single most important issue facing small businesses, as reported by 18% of NFIB members in May. These were followed by 16% citing the quality of labor and 14% reporting inflation as the most important problems. Other major concerns were the cost of labor at 9% and government requirements, also 9%.

According to the Small Business Administration, there are 33 million small businesses in the United States, which employ 62 million workers. The NFIB surveys anywhere from 500 to 2000 respondents each month and the typical firm employs 10 people and reports gross sales of about $500,000 a year. The NFIB figures can be found in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database.

250610V1.jpg

250610W1.jpg

- Economic & sales expectations rise.
- Employment plans & job openings continue to weaken.
- Percent raising prices steadies but price expectations increase.

U.S. NFIB Small Business Optimism Index Rebounds in May

250610C0.jpg

250610D0.jpg

Retail gasoline prices for all grades declined to an average $3.24 per gallon (-8.9% y/y) last week after falling to $3.26 in the prior week. Prices remained above their low of $3.13 in the week of December 9. The recent high was $3.79 in the week ending April 22, 2024. Its all-time high of $5.11 occurred in the week ending June 13, 2022. The retail price for on-highway diesel fuel increased to $3.47 per gallon (-5.1% y/y) in the week of June 9 from $3.45 in the prior week. The latest diesel price stood well below a high of $4.63 in the week ending September 18, 2023 and a peak of $5.81 in the week ending June 20, 2022.

The price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil rose to $63.35 per barrel (-15.0% y/y) in the week ended June 6, after easing to $61.12 per barrel in the prior week. Prices were at the highest level since the first week of April, but remained below a high of $91.45 in the week of September 29, 2023. The cost of crude oil peaked at $120.46 in the week of June 10, 2022. Yesterday, the price was $65.29 per barrel. The price of European Brent crude oil of $67.18 per barrel (-12.3% y/y) in the week of June 6 compared to $64.74 in the prior week. Prices remained below a recent high of $95.61 in the week of September 29, 2023 and below a peak of $127.40 in the week of June 10, 2022. Yesterday, the price was $68.73 per barrel.

Natural gas prices fell last week to an average $2.84 per mmbtu (+16.9% y/y) in the week ended June 6, after easing to $3.03/mmbtu in the prior week. Prices remained well above a low of $1.40/mmbtu in the week of March 15, 2024 but below their peak of $9.56 in the week of August 26, 2022. Yesterday, the price was $3.13 per mmbtu.

Gasoline demand fell 3.1% y/y in the four weeks ending May 30 following a 1.5% y/y decline in the prior four weeks. Demand for all petroleum products weakened 0.9% y/y in the four weeks ending May 30 after a 0.2% y/y easing in the previous four-week period. Crude oil input to refineries fell 1.1% y/y in the four weeks ending May 30 after a 0.7% y/y weakening in the prior four weeks.

Gasoline inventories fell 1.1% y/y in the week ending May 30 after a 2.5% y/y decline in the week ending May 23. Residual fuel oil inventories fell 18.5% y/y in the week of May 30, after an 18.6% y/y fall in the prior week. Crude oil inventories rose 1.4% y/y in the week of May 30 after a 2.1% y/y rise in the previous week.

Measured in days’ supply, gasoline inventories rose to 26.0 days in the week of May 30 from 25.1 days in the prior week. The recent low was 22.9 days in the week of November 8. The supply of crude oil fell to 26.3 days in the week of May 28 from 27.0 days in the prior week, and remained below a high of 31.9 days in the week of March 3, 2023.

These data are reported by the Energy Information Administration of the U.S. Department of Energy. The price and supply/demand data can be found in Haver’s **WEEKLY** & **USENERGY** database.

- Gasoline prices decline to three-month low.
- Crude oil prices continue to rise.
- Natural gas prices fall further.

U.S. Energy Prices Are Mixed in Latest Week

250610E.jpg

The National Australia Bank (NAB) index rose in May after three straight months of declining breaking a string of weakness. However, sequential changes still show declines on balance over 12 months, six months and three months. The level of the current index ranks only in its 32.6 percentile on data back to early 2003. The ranking of the three-month moving average is in its 17.6 percentile and for the 12-month moving average the ranking is in its 20th percentile. The index clearly is weak and it has been weak for a while; however, forward orders suggest that there may be some improvement in train, although that reading too remains with a weak, though improving, ranking.

**Bad breadth...**
The indexes and the components of the Australian index show broad based weakness over three months, six months and 12 months. Over recent months proving characteristics have shifted to be slightly more positive. As in March, 68.8% of the categories showed improvement month-to-month, in April only 18.8% showed monthly improvement while in May over 60% showed improvement. However, the monthly data are in sharp contrast to the sequential data where three-month trends show only 18.8% of the categories improving, only 37.5% improving over six months, and compared to a year ago only 25% are improving. So, the Australian index definitely chronicles a lot more weakness in train despite the fact there may be some hints of improvement or, at least, less weakness, creeping in.

**Weak, in a long historic context as well**
Among the 13 categories in the index, there are only six of them that have queue percentile standings above the 50% mark, a level that indicates they're above their historic medians; three of those firmer observations signal excessive price pressures coming from labor costs, purchase costs, and prices-outright. Interestingly, Australia continues to show exports and export sales as above median despite the hostile global environment with tariffs rising and trade wars threatening Australia also shows an above median reading for capacity utilization.

On balance, the report is not very reassuring although there is an increase in the overall index in May and there are slightly weaker decelerations in the three-month and 12-month moving averages, but those are more cases of less weakness in train than evidence of any outright improvement occurring. The NAB index continues to be a downbeat reading on the Australian business situation although the resilience in the export categories is something of note.

250610.jpg

Australia

National Australia Bank Survey – One Month Glimmer

250609L1.jpg

250609M1.jpg

Wholesale inventories increased 0.2% (2.3% y/y) during April after rising 0.3% in March, revised from 0.4%. An unchanged level of inventories had been expected in the Informa Global Markets survey. Durable goods inventories gained 0.1% during April (1.3% y/y) after increasing 0.6% in March. Professional & business equipment inventories strengthened 1.8% (8.7% y/y) after a 0.7% increase. Hardware & plumbing equipment inventories rose 1.6% (6.2% y/y) following a 1.8% strengthening. Motor vehicle & parts inventories rose 0.8% (0.1% y/y) following a 1.1% jump. Metals inventories held steady (-3.0% y/y) after rising 0.1% in March. On the weak side, lumber inventories declined 1.3% (+2.7% y/y) after falling by a similar amount in March. Machinery & equipment inventories declined 0.9% (-0.5% y/y) after rising 0.5%. Furniture inventories fell 0.6% (6.4% y/y) following a 2.5% jump, while machinery inventories declined 0.9% (-0.5% y/y) following a 0.5% gain in March. Inventories of nondurable goods rose 0.3% during April (4.2% y/y) after easing 0.1% in March. Drug inventories surged 1.3% (5.5% y/y) after a 0.1% slip while apparel inventories gained 1.5% (-1.1% y/y) following a 0.7% rise. Grocery inventories rose 1.4% (11.5% y/y) after a 0.7% rise. Working lower, paper inventories declined 0.7% (+5.7% y/y), reversing the March rise, while chemical inventories dropped 1.3% (+0.7% y/y) after strengthening 1.9% in March. Petroleum & petroleum product inventories fell 7.1% (-15.4% y/y) following a 1.2% decline.

Wholesale sales edged 0.1% higher (6.0% y/y) in April after increasing 0.8% in March. A 0.2% increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Sales of durable goods rose 0.2% (8.4% y/y) following a 1.2% strengthening in March. Furniture sales strengthened 2.3% (3.2% y/y) after a 0.5% decline. Professional equipment sales jumped 1.0% (9.5% y/y) as they did in March. Hardware sales rose 1.7% (7.9% y/y) following a 0.9% decline while machinery sales rose 1.4% (7.3% y/y) following a 1.0% March rise. Moving lower, motor vehicle sales fell 0.9% (-0.6% y/y) after a 0.5% drop. Metals sales fell 1.7% (-2.0% y/y) after a 1.9% rise. Electrical equipment sales declined 0.6% (+19.4% y/y) following a 2.9% rise. Sales of nondurable goods improved 0.1% (3.8% y/y) after rising 0.4% in March. Sales of apparel strengthened 1.2% (3.8% y/y) after falling 0.8%. Grocery store sales increased 1.3% (6.6% y/y) after a 0.2% gain. Paper sales improved 1.0% during April (1.4% y/y) after falling 1.5% in March. Drug sales rose 0.3% (13.0% y/y) after rising 3.4% in March. Moving lower, chemical sales fell 0.5% (-1.6% y/y) after a 0.3% rise while petroleum sales weakened 2.4% (-9.9% y/y) after declining 5.3% in March.

The April inventory to sales ratio in the wholesale sector was 1.3 for the third straight month. The durable goods I/S ratio was 1.69 for a second month, down from the 1.81 high in March of last year. The ratio ranged from a 2.84 high for machinery to 0.97 for electrical equipment. The nondurable goods I/S ratio was 0.93, also for a second month. The I/S ratio for apparel was 2.10 in April while for petroleum it was 0.31. 

The wholesale trade figures are available in Haver's **USECON** database. The expectations figure for inventories is contained in the **MMSAMER** database. Expectations for sales are from the **AS1REPNA** database.

250609N1.jpg

250609O1.jpg

- Inventory accumulation has been broad-based this year.
- Sales rise slightly.
- I/S ratio trends slower.

U.S. Wholesale Inventories & Sales Edge Higher in April

250609E.jpg

The economy watchers readings improved broadly, rising month-to-month across 70% of categories in the current index and across all categories in the future index. In sharp contrast, all the current and future readings are lower year-over-year and most of them are lower over six months- all are lower on a six-month average basis- as well as over three months compared to six months.

The month’s strength is widespread as one-month phenomenon, but it clearly comes amid a period when growth has been relentlessly weak. It is not clear that the one-month signal is strong enough to dominate the weak trend.

The levels of the readings are clearly and broadly weak. No future index has a ranking above the 50-percentile mark (above its median) and only one current reading -housing- is above its median, but that is only barely and only for a month and not an average basis.

The future indexes are relatively stronger for corporations, both manufacturing sector and in the nonmanufacturing sector, as well as for eating and drinking places. The services sector has the lowest ratio of the future reading ratio to the current reading.

Despite the ‘pop’ in the reading for this month, the report is hardly upbeat. Japan’s economy seems locked in a weak trend with the current month showing a sigh of life. The question is whether this signal is real and lasting or not. We can’t know that yet.

250609.jpg

Economy Watchers See a Glow of Improvement- But Not Much Growth

Tian Yong Woon

This week, we focus on critical minerals, which have moved into the spotlight following China’s recent restrictions on rare earth exports. The move triggered widespread supply chain disruptions and renewed attention to an issue that had long flown under the radar. A closer look reveals that just a handful of countries dominate global production—chief among them, China, as shown in chart 1. This concentration highlights the growing geopolitical and economic importance of mineral-rich nations in supporting key industries such as automotive, aerospace, and defence. The implications for national security are significant.

China’s influence goes well beyond raw material reserves. It has also positioned itself as a leading refiner of critical minerals such as copper and nickel—even though it is not the top producer of the raw ores (see chart 2). In the case of rare earths, China has become a key supplier to Western economies, including the United States and the Euro area (chart 3). Its recent export restrictions on rare earth elements (REE) are a direct response to ongoing trade actions and have already triggered disruptions across key industries. Ford in the US and Suzuki in Japan, for example, have reportedly paused production due to shortages of these inputs. Meanwhile, non-US automakers—particularly in Japan—face additional pressure from US auto tariffs. These have forced firms to slash export prices (chart 4), squeezing profit margins and weakening overall financial performance.

But not all signs point to prolonged disruption. There is a glimmer of hope. In Europe, negotiations with China suggest a possible easing of REE-related disruptions, although any concrete relief will likely depend on broader trade discussions. One likely sticking point is the surge in Chinese EV exports to Europe, which has saturated local markets and drawn import tariffs (chart 5). Meanwhile, US–China trade talks resume in London this week, with rare earths a central topic. Markets and policymakers alike are watching closely, hoping for signs of de-escalation. That said, the impact of these mutually imposed trade actions is already visible, as shown in chart 6. While negotiations continue, disruptions remain an active threat to supply chains, industrial output, and economic stability.

**Global critical minerals production**
While headlines are often dominated by breakthroughs in high-end and essential technologies, what tends to be overlooked are the raw materials that make those innovations possible. These foundational inputs are known as critical minerals—so named because of their vital role in enabling advanced technologies and their often-fragile supply chains. Critical minerals include rare earth elements (REEs)—a group of 17 chemically similar elements essential to high-tech, clean energy, and defence applications. Also considered critical are minerals used in various battery chemistries, including those for electric vehicles (EVs) and associated infrastructure. These include nickel, cobalt, graphite, and copper. Additionally, elements like gallium and germanium are indispensable for semiconductors, fibre optics, and other high-tech systems.

In their raw form, the global production of critical minerals is highly concentrated. As shown in chart 1, only a handful of economies account for the majority of the world's production—and this pattern repeats across most critical minerals. Countries such as China, Russia, South Africa, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo consistently emerge as dominant producers across several of these materials. While production dominance alone may not always present a risk, it becomes strategically significant when geopolitical tensions interfere with trade flows. This issue has come into sharper focus as China’s central role in global mineral supply chains is increasingly scrutinized—especially in the wake of renewed US-China trade tensions following President Trump’s second term in office.


250609T1.jpg

While China’s role in the critical minerals landscape is already evident from chart 1, it is, in fact, understated. China not only holds a dominant position in the mining production of many raw critical minerals, but it is also even more dominant in certain refining capacities. This includes minerals where it lacks a leading position in raw extraction, such as copper. Moreover, China's exports of certain refined products have been expanding at a rapid pace, as illustrated in chart 2, which highlights the surge in copper-related exports. In contrast, China’s REE exports have been declining sharply in recent years. This drop has accelerated in the wake of tightening export restrictions, a development that will be explored in greater detail in a later section. Additionally, while Indonesia leads in global nickel production, its industrial policy mandates that access to raw nickel be contingent on establishing domestic refining capacity. In this context, China has built up a dominant position in Indonesia’s nickel refining industry, through significant investment and rapid capacity expansion. This has enabled China to secure a steady supply of refined nickel—vital for supporting its already-substantial electric vehicle (EV) manufacturing sector.

250609T2.jpg

We now “dig deeper” into China’s exports of rare earth elements (REEs)—materials that are indispensable across a wide array of applications, from consumer electronics and electric vehicles (EVs) to military systems and aerospace technologies. Given their strategic importance, any significant disruption or cutoff in REE supply can have far-reaching consequences, including potential risks to national defence and security. China has previously leveraged its dominant position in REE markets to curb exports in response to trade-related tensions. The most recent example came in early April, when Beijing introduced a new requirement mandating that companies obtain export licenses before shipping seven specific REEs abroad. This policy shift has already caused notable disruption, particularly for the United States, which remains heavily dependent on Chinese REE supply, as shown in chart 3. The move has been widely interpreted as a targeted response, further highlighting the geopolitical significance of critical mineral supply chains in today’s global landscape.

250609T3.jpg

China’s April restrictions on rare earth element (REE) exports have disrupted production across multiple industries. In the United States, Ford temporarily halted Explorer SUV production due to shortages of critical REE inputs. The impact has been global, affecting not only the US, but also Europe and Asia. In Japan, for instance, Suzuki suspended production of its flagship Swift compact hatchback, reportedly due to REE supply constraints. This highlights the auto industry’s vulnerability, particularly in countries where it plays a significant economic role. In Japan, as in other auto-dependent economies, the sector is under dual pressure: from ongoing REE supply disruptions and persistent US auto tariffs. In response to US tariffs, Japanese automakers have cut export prices—as shown in chart 4—to remain competitive. However, by absorbing part of the tariff burden, they face tightening profit margins, further straining already pressured bottom lines.

250609T4.jpg

But all is not lost—there are early signs that the supply chain disruptions caused by China’s recent REE restrictions may begin to ease. In a potential concession to Europe, China has signalled its willingness to expedite the approval process for REE exports to EU firms. If implemented, this move could help ease the immediate pressure on European producers. However, such developments should be viewed in a broader geopolitical context. The acceleration of export approvals may be tied to the dynamics of overall EU–China trade negotiations. One potential flashpoint is the sharp rise in China’s EV exports to the EU, which significantly saturated European markets in recent years. In response, the EU has imposed tariffs to protect its domestic auto industry, although results have been mixed—as shown in chart 5—and further straining an already fragile trade relationship. More broadly, China’s actions on REEs have underscored the global economy’s heavy reliance on critical mineral supply chains. Much like how US semiconductor export controls pushed China to pursue self-sufficiency, China’s dominance in REEs may now force other countries to rethink technological dependencies—prompting innovation in alternatives that are less reliant, or entirely independent, of REEs.

250609T5.jpg

Lastly, there appears to be a glimmer of hope emerging from US–China relations as well. A recent 90-minute call between President Trump and President Xi last Thursday signalled the possibility of easing tensions. Attention now turns to the resumption of trade talks in London on June 9, where observers will be watching closely to see how China’s REE restrictions may evolve following the discussions. On China’s side, key concerns are likely to include ongoing US technology and semiconductor restrictions, as well as Trump’s recent move to ban foreign students at Harvard University—a decision that may further inflame diplomatic tensions. In the meantime, bilateral trade in affected sectors has sharply declined, weighed down by mutual tariffs and a growing array of non-tariff restrictions imposed by both sides—as shown in chart 6 below.

250609T6.jpg

Asia

Economic Letter from Asia: Systems Critical

large_250613F20.jpg

medium_250613F20.jpg

small_250613F20.jpg

thumbnail_250613F20.jpg

250613F20.jpg

large_250613G20.jpg

medium_250613G20.jpg

small_250613G20.jpg

thumbnail_250613G20.jpg

250613G20.jpg

The National Association of Realtors' Fixed Rate Mortgage Housing Affordability Index (HAI) fell 2.3% (+6.2% y/y) in April to 101.0 after rising moderately in each of the prior four months. The recent high was 104.9 in September. The level of home affordability remained 12.3% higher than its low of 89.9 in October 2023. It remains 43.6% below the high of 179.2 in April 2020.

The decline in affordability in April occurred as the median price of an existing single-family home rose 2.6% (1.7% y/y) to $418,000, and mortgage rates rose to 6.81% from 6.73% in March. The price compared to the record $432,900 in June 2024. The rise in mortgage rates left them up from a recent low of 6.26% in September of last year and below a 7.70% high in October of 2023. It remained well above a December 2020 low of 2.73%. These changes raised the principal & interest payment by 3.5% (-1.0% y/y) to $2,182 per month. That was well above the most recent low of $984 in February 2020. Monthly mortgage payments averaged a higher 24.8% of income during April. They remained up from a low of 14.0% of income in April 2020.

The rise in housing costs in April was accompanied by improvement in median family income. It increased 1.0% (5.1% y/y) to a record $105,791 after rising 0.4% in each of the prior two months.

Housing affordability declined m/m across the country in April. The index fell 3.7% (+4.2% y/y) to 130.1 in the Midwest. It remains the most affordable region of the country. In the South, the index declined 1.1% (+8.3% y/y) to 105.6 and the affordability index in the Northeast declined 3.9% (+0.5% y/y) to 92.0. In the West, where homes are the least affordable, the index fell 1.1% (+7.7% y/y) to 71.0 in April.

The Housing Affordability Index (HAI) equals 100 when a median-income borrower qualifies for an 80% mortgage on a median-priced existing single-family home. The HAI had exceeded 100 in each month since July 1990 and reached its all-time high of 213.3 in January 2013.

Data on Housing Affordability can be found in Haver’s **REALTOR** database. Median home sales prices are also available in **USECON**. Higher frequency interest rate data are found in **SURVEYS**, **WEEKLY**, and **DAILY**.

**Inflation Expectations** from the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland is available [here](https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicators-and-data/inflation-expectations).

large_250613H20.jpg

medium_250613H20.jpg

small_250613H20.jpg

thumbnail_250613H20.jpg

250613H20.jpg

large_250613I20.jpg

medium_250613I20.jpg

small_250613I20.jpg

thumbnail_250613I20.jpg

250613I20.jpg

- Home prices & mortgage rates rise.
- Median income improves.
- Affordability falls across country.

U.S. Housing Affordability Declines in April

Our global data offering is unparalleled in terms of coverage, quality, and organization. We offer 290+ databases from 2500 government and private sources, a wealth of key survey and forecast data covering the world’s economies, and a robust offering of archive databases that drive machine learning for big data applications.

Optimized for precision analytics, our data is seamlessly integrated with Microsoft Office and all leading statistical packages through our DLX® software and platform independent HaverView™ website. We further offer direct database feeds, client server or cloud-based delivery, and RESTful API.


Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

Contact us

A premier time series data platform for the global strategy, research, and quant communities. 

New York

London

Singapore

Tokyo

Economy in Brief

Viewpoints

Contact Us

Our Data

Our Products

What We Do

Our Authors

About Us

Data News

Resources

Release Calendars

Training Center

Webinars

Newsletters

Download Software

For Clients

Live Updates

#### World Economy Tracked for You 
Haver's worldwide economic data coverage provides a productive resource for analysts, strategists, and risk managers alike. With 45+ years as the industry leader, our breadth of data is unmatched.


#### Diverse Data Sources
From international banks to the farthest reaches of emerging markets, our coverage meets the needs of the global research community.

#### Driven By Quality
Committed to quality and transparency, all data sourced and delivered is continuously monitored and validated to ensure the highest level of accuracy. 

#### Global Data 
From archives to forecasts, primary-sourced from around the globe, we offer 290+ time-series databases.

#### Speed Matters
Delivering precise data as quickly as possible is our priority, which we accomplish in about one minute of release.

Data

#### Comprehensive Solutions
Effortlessly navigate, analyze, and visualize data with our broad array of tools and seamless integration with industry leading statistical and econometric packages. Gain insight and share your perspectives with ease.

#### Secure Data Access 
Effortlessly manage and work with data — delivered to your network or via our cloud services. The choices are easy, and the results are the same, fully secure and consistent access.

#### HaverView™
With a commitment to making data accessible for any work environment, our HaverView web application offers a flexible and productive resource for the dynamic research markets we serve. 

#### Data Exports and Workflow Management
Our DLX software integrates with MS Office allowing seamless publication in PowerPoint and Word as well as intuitive data management in Excel. Flexible data feeds are also supported by a variety of methods. 

Software

#### Econometric Software Support
Use our various integration tools to access our data in popular econometric software such as SAS, Stata and MatLab.

#### Designed for Programming
Access our data using multiple programming languages including Python, R, C and C++.

#### RESTful API
Restful API access to all DLX databases, supporting quant and machine learning applications. Big data rejoice!

Connectivity

#### Commentaries, Charts and Webcasts
Our team of noted economists produce a daily offering of commentaries supported by our data and analytics. Our charts and webcasts offer a fresh perspective on the state of world economy.

#### Value Added Calculations
World and regional aggregates and many other value added calculations for individual countries including seasonal and holiday adjustments. We love math!

#### Blue Chip Consensus Forecasts
Survey of America's leading business economists for their forecasts of economic and financial data. Results in two monthly publications, the Blue Chip Economic Indicators and the Blue Chip Financial Forecasts, published by Wolters Kluwer.

#### Curated Navigation
Intuitive menus designed and reviewed by our economists for easy navigation of Haver's expanding ocean of data.

Research

#### Data for Colleges and Universities
Customized data available through HaverView providing access to over 120,000 economic and financial time series for the US and UK.

#### Academic Data Scope
National Account (GDP), Production, Labour Market, Inflation, Monetary/Fiscal Policy & International Trade. High-frequency data covering financial variables and drivers of the real economy, and key ESG environmental indicators. Plus, time series from the IMF on 190+ countries to aid cross comparison.

University

#### Move Back through Time
Terabytes of time series from primary sourced databases available in monthly snapshots as early as 2000, in weekly snapshots as early as 2007 or the point of inception of the database. 

#### True DLX Database Snapshots
The data are true snapshots of DLX databases unrevised from the point in time of update.  Easily view our archive data in HaverView with thousands of monthly archives currently available for over 60 unique databases. 

Andrew Cates

**The Blue Chip growth consensus**
Our first chart this week depicting shifts in consensus growth expectations highlights significant divergences in the economic outlook over the past six months and the more recent one-month period. Major downward revisions over the past six months have prominently affected economies such as South Korea, Mexico, Australia and Canada, indicating heightened vulnerability to external shocks, particularly from disruptions linked to intensified US trade policies. Conversely, China has shown a slight improvement, possibly due to an effective policy response. The recent one-month adjustments, however, exhibit much smaller and generally modest upward revisions, suggesting some stabilization or cautious optimism amid ongoing uncertainties.

250612Z1.jpg

**The Blue Chip inflation consensus**
This next chart tracking consensus forecasts for CPI inflation in 2025 across the US, Euro area, and China reveals a striking divergence in inflation expectations. In the US, inflation projections rose steadily through late 2024 and early 2025, peaking above 3% before easing slightly. This upward drift likely reflects the lagged impact of the US economy's relative strength in 2024, including robust consumer demand and tight labour markets, rather than more recent tariff-related pressures. By contrast, Euro area forecasts have remained relatively low and stable, suggesting more subdued domestic dynamics and tighter policy. Meanwhile, China's CPI forecast has fallen sharply over the same period pointing to deepening demand-side weakness and lingering deflationary risks.

Financial markets have experienced considerable gyrations in recent weeks, reflecting substantial shifts in investor expectations and heightened uncertainty, largely driven by ongoing US tariff policies. Over the past six months, consensus growth forecasts have seen notable downward revisions across most major economies, though these have been partially offset by modest upward revisions in the past month (chart 1). Concurrently, consensus inflation projections have diverged significantly, with upward pressures in the US contrasting with deflationary risks in China (chart 2). Compounding these US issues, renewed protectionism appears to be pressuring global supply chains again, potentially increasing inflation risks and sustaining elevated monetary policy uncertainty (charts 3 and 4). This week's particularly weak UK employment data highlight immediate domestic economic fragility, while longer-term economic stability remains challenged by persistently high real energy prices and complexities surrounding the energy transition (charts 5 and 6).

<iframe style="border-radius:12px" src="https://open.spotify.com/embed/episode/2K5yn5mktem6BKoNjOxNI6?utm_source=generator" width="100%" height="152" frameBorder="0" allowfullscreen="" allow="autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; fullscreen; picture-in-picture" loading="lazy"></iframe>

Discover Haver!

Data

Software

Connectivity

Research

University

Archive

World Economy Tracked for You

Diverse Data Sources

Driven By Quality

Global Data

Speed Matters

Economic Commentary

U.S. Housing Affordability Declines in April

Recent Commentaries

Charts of the Week: What’s Consensus?

U.S. Producer Price & Core Price Indexes Edge Higher in May

U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Were Steady in Latest Week

Japan’s MOF Business Outlook Survey- A Step back But with Optimism

U.S. Consumer Price Index & Core Prices Rise Minimally in May

U.S. Federal Government Deficit Resumes in May After Tax Inflow in April

Latest Releases

Graph of the Week

Renewed supply chain pressures point to a rebound in global inflation ahead

Economy in Brief

Viewpoints